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Brazil arrived as clear favourites, but Morocco refused to follow the script. A 1-1 draw at the New York New Jersey Stadium validated Shepherd's strongest pre-match signal and showed why tournament football is often decided by organisation and discipline.
Qatar shocked the market but not Shepherd. While Switzerland were widely expected to win, the hosts stayed disciplined and struck late through Miro Muheim to secure a dramatic 1-1 draw. This matched our strongest pre-match signal.
The USA expected to face a stubborn Paraguay side, but a statement performance unfolded instead. Christian Pulisic pulled the strings, Folarin Balogun struck twice, and the hosts cruised to a 4-1 victory that exposed the gap between our pre-match expectations and what happened on the pitch.
Mexico’s 2-0 win over South Africa showed how quickly a match can move away from its pre-game probability path. Shepherd’s draw signal depended on South Africa staying compact and disciplined, but an early defensive error and two red cards changed the game.
